US Unemployment Rate Analyzed
This project was carried out as an assignment, being a member of the third cohort of the She Code Africa Data Science Mentorship Program.
Here, I explore the rate of unemployment in the USA over every month for 27 years; 1990–2016, in 47 states of the USA consisting of 1,752 counties. This analysis is done in two parts namely: Analysis of Time(Month and Year) and Analysis of Place/Location (State and County).
The data used for this analysis was gotten from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor. It has 885,548 rows and 5 columns.
Year Month State County Rate
0 2015 February Mississippi Newton County 6.1
1 2015 February Mississippi Panola County 9.4
2 2015 February Mississippi Monroe County 7.9
3 2015 February Mississippi Hinds County 6.1
4 2015 February Mississippi Kemper County 10.6
... ... ... ... ... ...
885543 2009 November Maine Somerset County 10.5
885544 2009 November Maine Oxford County 10.5
885545 2009 November Maine Knox County 7.5
885546 2009 November Maine Piscataquis County 11.3
885547 2009 November Maine Aroostook County 9.0885548 rows × 5 columns
Below is the US employment data sorted by rate of unemployment. From this data, the highest unemployment rate ever from the year 1990–2016 in the US is 58.4%. This was in January, 1990 at San Juan County, Colorado State.
Year Month State County Rate
351231 1992 January Colorado San Juan County 58.4
337760 1992 February Colorado San Juan County 56.5
342958 1992 March Colorado San Juan County 54.9
240742 1991 February Texas Starr County 54.0
359186 1992 April Colorado San Juan County 53.3
Analysis of Time (Month and Year)
The line plot above shows the trend of the average unemployment rate over the 27 years. On the average, there were more job opportunities in the US between 1992 and 2000 which resulted in a significant drop in unemployment rate. A sharp increase in unemployment rate however started in 2008 and continued to 2010. This sharp increase can be traced to the Great Recession; an economic collapse which occurred in the USA between December 2007 to June 2009. The impact of this recession is seen to have continued till 2010. The US however steadily recovered from it as shown in the line plot.
The bar chart below gives a sorted summary of the average unemployment rate over the years. The rate of unemployment in the US was highest in the year 2010 and lowest in 2000.
The bar chart above shows that the average unemployment rate is significantly high in the first 3 months of the year; January, February and March. This may be because most companies takes stock and review financial statements, business expenses and their employee list at the end of the year.
Let’s see the average unemployment rate for each month by year.
The figure above, shows the average unemployment rate from January through December from the year 1990 to 2016. A similar trend is followed in almost all the years such that the highest average unemployment rates occur in January, February and March. This trend remains even in the year 2010 and 2000 which have the highest and lowest unemployment rates respectively. Some years however follow a different pattern e.g. in 2008 and 2009 (Great Recession years), the highest unemployment rate occurred in the month of December.
Analysis of Place (State and County)
Now we’ll explore how location affects unemployment rate.
The bar chart below shows the average unemployment rate from 1990–2016 for each of the 47 states.
Nebraska state is seen to have the lowest average unemployment rate while Arizona has the highest.
Again, the trend is quite similar every year for each state. The unemployment rate in Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota are relatively low but those in states like Mississippi and California are high, year after year. This could be due to a number of things such as the population of people in those states. Thus the state where a person lives in the US can determine his/her chance of being employed.
The figure below shows how each state handled the 2008–2010 US economic collapse period.
Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota were least affected by the economic regression in terms of unemployment rate. California, Michigan and South Carolina on the other hand, were terribly affected.
The rate of unemployment vary with month in each state. In most states, January, February or March are the months when on the average, most people are unemployed but in states like Arizona and South Carolina, July has the highest average unemployment rate.
Conclusions
There was a sharp rise in unemployment rate in the USA in the year 2008 which is assumed to be a result of the Great Recession; an economic collapse which occurred in the USA between 2008 and 2009. This rise continued to 2010 after which the rate in unemployment rate steadily dropped.
Over the years 1996–2010, the USA had the highest average unemployment rate in the year 2010 and the lowest in year 2000.
On the average, in most states in the USA contained in this data, the unemployment rate rises in the first 3 months of the year; January, February and March. Some states
Unemployment rate varies with location. Hence, the state where a person lives in the US can determine his/her chance of being employed.
