Why did Bitcoin suddenly Crash?

And is this the end?

Bitcoin rallied from $3,000 in March 2020 to $65,000 in April 2021. The crypto market was seeming too good to be true lately. Everybody I talked to seemed to either already be making money from it or looking to get in. In hindsight, this seemed like a perfect local “top” indicator. Even if one forgets the absurdity of Dogecoin, people were buying and making money from stupid meme knock-offs coins that similarly had dogs in their logos or obscene pornographic names. This absurdity still largely exists in the market. Memecoins (which I’m surprised is even a category now) like Shiba Inu and Safemoon are both top 100 projects in terms of market capitalisation as I write this article on the 21st of May 2021. If this is not a top signal, I don’t know what is. But instead of complaining about the shitcoinery that is going on, I would like to uncover why the party either ended or is paused for a while. I have three hypotheses for this:

Hypothesis 1: This was just a “normal” correction

Bitcoin is amazing. It is permission-less, unconfiscatable, deflationery, nondiscriminatory, digital, global, fungible, easy to use and decentralized. You know it, I know it. But the one downside I see with Bitcoin as an asset is that it is new. The benefit of this is that investing now would ensure that you are one of the early adopters and gain a lot of profits. But because Bitcoin is so new this means that we do not have a lot of historical data to compare it with.

However, we do have 2 past bull markets to look at from the previous 4 year cycles. Below are 2 tweets from the legendary investor Raoul Pal. In the first one he compares this market’s price movements with the 2013 bull market, and with 2017 bull market in the next one:

The charts match up very closely. This may very well be the case. Even though I am not fully convinced that this is the case, out of all the possible scenarios, this is the one I am the most hopeful for. Why? Because this one hypothesizes…