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Why Everyone Thinks Elon’s Losing — and What They Might Be Missing.
Musk’s strategy is more complex than it looks.
A famous author once said the best writers spot the gap between perception and reality.
I’ve always thought the same skill is a cheat code in investing.
Take Ark Invest’s wild bet on Tesla — they’re calling for a $2,600 stock price by 2029, up from $249 today. That’s a 10 x move.
By 2030, they see 50 million robotaxis on the road, with Tesla owning half the market. Meanwhile, competitors like Waymo could struggle, stuck between China’s price wars and the usual legacy automaker mess.
If Tesla went all-in — turning every future car into a robotaxi instead of the expected 30–40% — they could hit Ark’s entire industry forecast solo.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Woods calls autonomous driving a winner-take-all game. Tesla’s aggressive development of an autonomous taxi network suggests it might be conducting the biggest AI experiment in history.
Tesla has a monopoly on people’s data and can produce vehicles 30% to 40% cheaper than companies like Waymo.
“Autonomous electric travel should reduce costs, including fuel, insurance, and deadhead miles, thanks to higher utilization, increased safety and efficiency, and electric drivetrains. Deadhead miles are the number of miles driven without passengers, which account for 45% of ride-hail miles today. Autonomous vehicles could reduce deadhead miles by removing the human-in-the-loop and harnessing AI tools to predict demand and traffic patterns.”
Waymo dominates autonomous rides in the U.S. and Baidu in China, as shown on the left below.
However, Tesla has the most significant data pool, which could give it a serious advantage if it launches ride-hailing with their existing network as planned in 2025.
